This fall has certainly been one for the record books with an all-time November record high of 84 degrees set on the 6th of the month. 

October proved to be a very dry month. In fact, we tied for the 13th driest October on record at the Tri-Cities Airport with just .84″ of rain.

So what about this winter? Will we continue with the dry and warm conditions? Or will the pattern change and allow for more moisture and a better chance for snow?

This will be our third consecutive year of La Nina conditions, which is best described as a cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial part of the Central Pacific Ocean. 

During a typical La Nina year, the Tri-Cities will experience above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.  

Let’s talk snowfall!  The average snowfall in the Tri-Cities is 9.2 inches.

We will look at the moderate La Nina years for snowfall, as that phase is what is expected again this year. You’ll notice that most moderate La Nina years produce average or below-average snowfall.

It’s important to point out that last year, I predicted 11-13″ of snow for the Tri-cities. The Tri-Cities Airport received 10 inches of snowfall.

Here is Mark’s 2022/2023 winter weather prediction for the Tri-Cities:

I predict several periods of warmth which could include temperatures in the middle 60s to near 70 at least two times from December to early March. 

Unfortunately, I think our bouts of dry weather will continue into the early Spring.

I am forecasting 10 to 12″ of snow for the Tri-Cities this year. 

Once again, the average snowfall for the Tri-Cities is 9.2″.

Remember, if we get a storm system that moves up the East Coast while cold air is moving southeast and the moisture is there, we could still have the opportunity for a heavy snowfall this year, which would also give us above-average snowfall.  

I certainly think that parts of Southwest Virginia and Eastern Kentucky could see average, if not, slightly above-average snowfall totals for the season. I think that the Smoky Mountains, the highest elevations of Northeast Tennessee and Western North Carolina could also see average snowfall totals, if not a bit below normal totals this winter season.