Storm Team 11: Is the Woolly Worm Prediction Fact or Fiction?

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Is the Woolly Worm Prediction Fact or Fiction?

A viewer recently sent in a picture of a woolly worm with all 13 segments completely black. Folklore says the colors of the woolly worm relate to the severity of the winter. The greater the number of black segments, the colder the winter will be. The question is, how much truth is there to the woolly worm predictions? Perhaps the color is just a natural reflection of its environment. According to, the woolly worm predictions are typically 80% to 85% correct.

The forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows a 30% to 40% chance for a warmer than average winter season that runs from December to February. Of course, this does not reflect any cold spells or warm-ups during these months which is very possible given the time of year. In general, this forecast hints at the potential for a warmer than average winter.

The forecast for precipitation indicates an equal chance for near normal precipitation. This reflects the idea that probabilities do not favor an above average or below average season during the winter months. Much like temperatures, this seasonal forecast does not reflect those short-term winter systems that are capable of producing above average snow or rain.

So, whether the color of the woolly worm is just a natural reflection of its environment, or reveals the capacity of predicting the future, you be the judge.

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