Storm Team 11: Turning soggy overnight with a few thunderstorms, Isolated flooding near the Kentucky/Virginia border

Weather

Storm Team 11 Forecast:
Sunday, February 28, 2021

Rain Slowly Moves in Overnight
After a gusty afternoon and record warmth on this last day of February, the much advertised heavy rain will swing through tonight. It will take it’s time sliding southeast through Kentucky, which is where the greatest concern for flooding exists. Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible, especially in this zone as well, but a few thunderstorms are possible elsewhere, especially west of the Tri-Cities. A strong to severe storm can’t be ruled our far western areas near the Kentucky/Virginia/Tennessee line but the overall threat looks low locally. Damaging winds are the main concern in addition to heavy rain. There is a greater potential for some severe storms in from Cookeville westward through Tennessee and Kentucky, including a couple tornadoes.

Estimated Time of Arrival for the Heaviest Rain tonight and Monday Morning:
9 PM – 12 AM: Leslie and Letcher County in Kentucky, clipping a few of the bordering communities in southwest Virginia from time to time.
11 PM – 3 AM: Southwest Virginia west of I-81 down to Hawkins County in east Tennessee
2 AM – 6 AM: The rest of east Tennessee, North Carolina and southwest Virginia

Additional Rainfall Projections from the Main Event Tonight and Monday Morning:
Eastern Kentucky: 1.5-3″ of rain (an isolated report of 4″ possible)
Southwest Virginia: 1-2″ of rain (an isolated report of 3″ possible)
Tri-Cities: 1″ of rain (an isolated report of 1.5-2″ possible near the TN/VA border)
North Carolina: 0.5-1″ of rain

Drying Out Monday Afternoon and Tuesday
The heaviest rain is done by 6 or 7 AM with light to moderate rain ending Monday from north to south and by early afternoon in the Tri-Cities. Breezy and getting cooler throughout the day. Temperatures start off in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees around Midnight to 2 AM before dropping. Temperatures will be in the 40s much of the day to the north of the Tri-Cities. Some sunshine is expected by late afternoon.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies Monday night. Colder with a low near 30 degrees.

A decent amount of sunshine is expected Tuesday. Cool highs in the low 50s.

Weak System Early Wednesday
Our next chance of rain is late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. It does not look terribly heavy or widespread. In fact, the best chance looks to be in east Tennessee and North Carolina. If cool enough air sticks around, there is the possibility of some wintry mix. Highs in the low 50s.

Late Week Outlook
Partly cloudy, mild and dry Thursday with a high of 55 degrees as computer models are trending cooler.

There could be a bit of moisture Friday or Saturday as of now.

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