Storm Team 11: Rain mainly north of the Tri-Cities today as we warm up, Heavy rain threat returns Sunday night


Storm Team 11 Forecast:
Saturday, February 27, 2021

Showers Today Lifting North
Cloudy with occasional showers today as we kick off the weekend. Rain will be more widespread in the morning through early afternoon and heaviest in Kentucky and northern southwest Virginia. Elsewhere, a few spotty showers possible with glimpses of sunshine to the south. Mild with a high of 63 degrees in the Tri-Cities, upper 50s to near 60 degrees for the rest of you.

Mostly cloudy and foggy tonight with a passing shower or downpour possible through about midnight or 2 AM, especially northwest of the Tri-Cities. Otherwise, a pretty nice lull in the rainfall into the first part of Sunday. A low of 52 degrees.

Warm, Windy and Dry Most of Sunday until Sunday Night
Partly sunny and dry most of Sunday across the entire area. Turning windy and getting very warm. We’ll top out at least in the low 70s in the Tri-Cities as we approach the record high for the last day of February as the rain is well to our north and a warmer, more humid air flow comes up from the Gulf keeping the rain chances at bay through at least early afternoon. Winds will be out of the southwest around 10 to 20 mph with gusts easily around 30-35 mph at times, especially around midday through mid-afternoon.

Heavy rain over northeast Kentucky slips back our direction late in the day leaving us with a cloudy and increasingly soggy Sunday night. Rain will be heavy at times with the flooding possible, especially northwest of the Tri-Cities Sunday night into Monday morning. A few thunderstorms, especially rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out during this time.

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of eastern Kentucky, southwest Virginia and parts of east Tennessee except for Johnson, southern Carter, Unicoi, Washington and Green Counties. North Carolina is also not included in the Flood Watch. Aside from localized flooding Saturday in Kentucky and northern southwest Virginia, the biggest concern for flooding comes Sunday after sunset through the Monday morning commute.

Predicted Rainfall Totals Through Monday Morning:
Eastern Kentucky: 3-5″ (an isolated 6″ report is possible)
Southwest Virginia: 1-3″ (an isolated 4 or 5″ report is possible)
Tri-Cities 1-2″ (a swath of 3″ of rain is possible especially northwest of the Tri-Cities)
North Carolina: 1″ (possibly less in spots)

Drier Monday Afternoon
Needless to say those in flood prone areas across our region and especially those along rivers, creeks and streams need to pay very close attention. The good news is rain ends Monday from north to south with some sunshine expected in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. As we continue to clear out Monday night, it will be colder with lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. 

Passing Showers Possible Mid-Week
There is the possibility of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, but this rain won’t be as heavy as the rain this weekend nor will it be for everyone. Temperatures stay mild through the week, especially in the afternoons.

Enjoy the weekend and stay weather aware as the heavy rain potential is highest Sunday night/Monday morning.

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