Storm Team 11: Marginal Risk for severe weather Saturday, damaging wind potential

Weather

(WJHL) – A very strong, spring-like weather system will be tracking across the southeast today into the weekend. The severe weather threat for today stays well off to our southwest. A level 4 out of 5 for severe weather exists for portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. These locations have a high risk for damaging winds and tornadoes today.

The system moves our way Saturday evening. East Tennessee is included in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, or a level 1 out of 5. A squall line will move in bringing the threat of damaging winds and heavy rain.

TIMING

As of the Friday midday update, here is the latest on the timing of storms. This can change slightly from today until tomorrow. Storm Team 11 will continue to update the timing throughout the day.

The overall timing looks to be from 5 p.m. through 11 p.m. as far as any severe threat. Rain may linger around across the region after the initial line.

MAIN THREATS

Damaging winds will be the main threat with the squall line. The flash flooding threat and rainfall totals remain low due to the speed of the system. The hail threat is little to none. The possibility of a brief spin up is there, but overall wind damage is the primary threat.

WIND ALERTS

Outside of thunderstorms, winds will still be a threat. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the east TN mountains and foothills through Saturday evening. Winds here will be sustained from 25-40 mph and gusts up to hurricane force are possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for western North Carolina and portions of southwest Virginia. Here winds can gusts up to 40-50 mph.

Storm Team 11’s in house model has sustained winds of 40+ mph in the mountains Saturday afternoon. Gust can well exceed this.
Winds will be on the increase this evening for everyone.
Very windy conditions will be around before storms even arrive Saturday from the south.

Near-record high temperatures are added fuel to any storms on Saturday.

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