Storm Team 11: Heavy rain overnight and some rumbles of thunder, Drying out by Monday afternoon


Storm Team 11 Forecast:
Sunday, February 28, 2021

Rain Slowly Moves in Overnight
Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are moving through eastern Kentucky and nearby southwest Virginia. It’s in those areas where the flood risk is greatest through sunrise. The moisture will slide eastward and eventually southward late, not reaching the Tri-Cities and areas near and east of I-81 until after 2 AM.

Estimated Time of Arrival for the Heaviest Rain tonight and Monday Morning:
A strong to borderline severe storm is possible near the Kentucky/Virginia/Tennessee line until 12 or 1 AM. Damaging winds would be the main concern other than heavy rain. A few rumbles of thunder are possible past that time until about 3 AM.

Additional Rainfall Projections from the Main Event Tonight and Monday Morning on top of what’s fell before tonight:
Eastern Kentucky: 1.5-3″ of rain (an isolated report of 4″ possible)
Southwest Virginia: 1-2″ of rain (an isolated report of 3″ possible)
Tri-Cities: 1″ of rain (an isolated report of 1.5-2″ possible near the TN/VA border)
North Carolina: 0.5-1″ of rain

Drying Out Monday Afternoon and Tuesday
The heaviest rain is done by 6 or 7 AM with light to moderate rain ending Monday from north to south and by early afternoon in the Tri-Cities. Breezy and getting cooler throughout the day. Temperatures start off in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees around Midnight to 2 AM before dropping. Temperatures will be in the 40s much of the day to the north of the Tri-Cities. Some sunshine is expected by late afternoon.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies Monday night. Colder with a low near 30 degrees.

A decent amount of sunshine is expected Tuesday. Cool highs in the low 50s.

Weak System Early Wednesday
Our next chance of rain is late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. It does not look terribly heavy or widespread. In fact, the best chance looks to be in east Tennessee and North Carolina. If cool enough air sticks around, there is the possibility of some wintry mix. Highs in the low 50s.

Late Week Outlook
Partly cloudy, mild and dry Thursday with a high of 55 degrees as computer models are trending cooler.

There could be a bit of moisture Friday or Saturday as of now.

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