Storm Team 11: Few downpours tonight, Warm and windy Sunday with heaviest rain arriving after dark


Storm Team 11 Forecast:
Saturday, February 27, 2021

Cloudy and feeling damp tonight. Some patchy fog. There is a 50% chance of rain and downpours with higher chances northwest of the immediate Tri-Cities. Temperatures stay in the 50s with a low around 52 degrees.

Warm, Windy and Dry Most of Sunday until Sunday Night
Spotty showers possible Sunday morning. Otherwise, we’ll be warming up and mainly dry. Partly sunny, warmer and turning windy by late morning and early afternoon. Southwest winds will be consistent around 10 to 20 mph with gusts of at least 30 to 35 mph across the entire region. Highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Our forecast high for the Tri-Cities is 73 degrees, which is very close to the record high for the last day of February.

Turning soggy Sunday night as heavy rain in northern Kentucky slowly moves east and southeastward. As a result, timing for the rain is pushed back for some. Rain will be heavy at times locally especially after 8 PM, first near the KY/VA line. A few thunderstorms are possible there. It may take until midnight or later early Monday for the heaviest rain to reach the Tri-Cities. Steering currents will favor the potential for several hours of drenching rain for eastern Kentucky and parts of southwest Virginia, especially the farther north you go. The flood risk is highest in those areas.

Flood Watch is goes into effect for all of eastern Kentucky, southwest Virginia and parts of east Tennessee except for Johnson, southern Carter, Unicoi, Washington and Green Counties. North Carolina is also not included in the Flood Watch. Aside from localized flooding Saturday in Kentucky and northern southwest Virginia, the biggest concern for flooding comes Sunday night through the Monday morning commute. If you encounter flooding, please seek higher ground.

Additional Predicted Rainfall Totals Through early Monday Afternoon:
Eastern Kentucky: 2-3″ (an isolated 4-5″ report is possible)
Southwest Virginia: 1-3″ (an isolated 4″ report is possible)
Tri-Cities 1-1.5″ (a swath of 2-3″ of rain is possible especially near the VA/TN border)
North Carolina: 0.5-1″ (possibly less in spots)

Drier Monday Afternoon
Rain ends Monday afternoon from north to south. Mostly cloudy and cooler. Temperatures start off in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees before sunrise and drop into the lower 50s throughout the day.

As we continue to clear out Monday night, it will be colder with lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. 

A decent amount of sunshine is expected Tuesday. Cool highs in the low 50s.

Quick Showers Possible Mid-Week
Our next chance of rain is Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. It does not look terribly heavy or widespread. If cool enough air sticks around, there is the possibility of some wintry mix.

Partly cloudy, mild and dry Thursday with a high of 60 degrees.

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