Storm Team 11: Break in the heat after Monday as tropical downpours move toward us


Storm Team 11 Forecast:
Sunday, August 29, 2021

Hurricane Ida made landfall in southeast Louisiana this afternoon as a strong category 4 with sustained winds of 150 mph. It is starting to slow down which is only exasperating the extreme weather there. The system moves north through Mississippi most of Monday before turning northeast toward middle Tennessee Tuesday. While we’ll see some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms around to start the workweek, the brunt of Ida’s impacts move into our area mainly from Tuesday afternoon through midday Wednesday. Expect heavy rain at times, localized flooding and possibly a couple tornadoes close by depending on how in-tact the circulation remains. In addition, Ida’s remnants will merge with a weather maker coming down from the north, which could further enhance some of the rainfall. We dry out Thursday and especially Friday!

Quiet Tonight
Passing clouds tonight. Maybe a stray shower. Muggy with a low of 66 to 69 degrees across most of the region with low 60s in the mountains.

Hot with Pop Up Thundershowers in Spots Monday
Quite a bit of sunshine still Monday morning with a mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon. High clouds will start streaming in around the outer edges of Ida but our rain chance Monday won’t be from that just yet. Spotty showers and thundershowers are expected to flare up during the afternoon, especially from eastern Kentucky and southwest Virginia up through the Ohio thanks to a system sliding through the Midwest. There is a 30% chance of rain overall. Meanwhile, the heat is about to break. This will be the last really hot day for several days. A high of 91 in the Tri-Cities making it the 9th day of row of 90°+ heat. We’ll max out in the mid to upper 80s in most of southwest Virginia and around 80 degrees in the higher elevations.

Clouds really increase Monday evening. We have a 30% chance of passing rain and maybe a thunderstorm through the night. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Tropical Rains Tuesday into Wednesday, Heavy at Times
Mostly cloudy Tuesday. Patches of rain are possible mainly west of the Tri-Cities at first with a downsloping wind likely delaying the start of rain in the Tri-Cities until late afternoon or early evening. Once the rain moves in, it comes in quick and heavy. Expect increasing showers and thunderstorms after that point with off and on tropical downpours. There is a 70% chance of rain. Some severe weather, including the threat for a couple tornadoes nearby, is possible given the setup. Highs in the low to mid 80s in most of the region with mid to upper 70s north.

How Much Rain?
The heaviest rain is still forecast from Tuesday evening or Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. We have an 80% chance of rain then. Again, there is the potential for some strong to severe weather with a slightly higher risk of flooding. Showers will continue at times through Wednesday night or even Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts look to be around 1 to 3 inches on average, on the lower end the farther east and southeast you live and on the higher end (perhaps upwards of 4 inches) as you go up toward Jonesville, Wise or Jackson, Kentucky. Stay tuned as the heaviest swath of rainfall could shift east or west.

Clouds and rain will likely keep our temperatures in the 70s Wednesday.

Turning Drier Late Week
As we start drying out Thursday, especially in the afternoon, you’ll notice it starting to turn less humid. Highs Thursday in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The dry air means lows may dip into the low to mid 50s Friday.

Looking Toward Labor Day
For the upcoming Labor Day weekend, relatively dry weather is expected for the majority of it. Rain chances are slim to none as of now from Friday through the holiday itself.

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