A strong storm system will move across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, which will bring a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and the possibility for tornadoes. Here is a look at the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. A Moderate Risk of severe weather is forecast for Middle Tennessee with the possibility for tornadoes.
Very strong upper-level winds and shear – turning of winds with height – will be present tomorrow which could produce long tracking tornadoes across Middle and parts of East Tennessee west of Knoxville, Alabama, and Mississippi. You can see the jet stream map which indicates where we will see the threat for severe weather due to lifting winds.
This map shows the possibility for rotating thunderstorms across our state. You can see how there are different wind directions with height. This is what we call shear. The gray and red streaks are where we could see those rotating supercell thunderstorms that could produce a tornado.
Our best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will most likely be during the evening – possibly late evening.
High Wind Warnings will be in effect for the mountains of East Tennessee for possible wind gusts up to 70 mph.
The biggest threat of severe weather for Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia will be the possibility of damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and or 1″ diameter hail or larger. Rainfall could be locally heavy at times. We could see one to maybe as much as two inches of rain.
We will dry out Friday afternoon with more rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday.