A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect this evening for much of the area, including the Tri-Cities. A Winter Storm Warning also goes into effect for the spine of the Appalachian Mountains tonight. Where the warnings are located is where the highest confidence of several inches of snowfall is. Confidence is lowered when forecasting for the Tri-Cities.
The Tennessee & North Carolina mountains as well as western North Carolina will likely see several inches of snowfall, up to 4-8″ with even 6-10″ in spots. This is because most of the moisture is here. Precipitation moves in first here and remains snow.
Southwest Virginia & Kentucky will likely see a few inches. Most spots will range from 2-4″. Higher amounts are expected along the VA & KY border, 3-5″
The Tri-Cities holds the most uncertainty. Why? Winds and temperatures. Southeasterly winds cause it to be warmer and drier in the Tri-Cities compared to surrounding locations. Temperatures for most of the night will be hovering around freezing. The big question is how long do the southeast winds keep us drier and above freezing? The earlier we get snow started, the more snow we will see. Right now most high-res models keep rain around first, then a switch to snow in the Tri-Cities overnight. Once the switch happens, we could get quick accumulations as a piece of energy moves over us by daybreak tomorrow. Right now, we are forecasting 1-3″ for Tri-Cities. If the temps struggle to cool, we could see less.
Snow will begin to move into western NC and TN mountains after 6pm while rain looks to move into the Tri-Cities first after 9 pm. The transition from rain to snow for Tri-Cities will likely happen around 4-5am.